Ever heard someone say “that’s a good value” in sports betting?
Well, Positive EV or +EV, is a mathematical way for us to figure out just how good of a value every bet is. Positive EV (Also known as +EV) betting is a term that gets thrown around very loosely in the sports betting world. Many people online will build betting models, or systems that they say to be positive EV, but don’t have much definitive proof.
This is your A-Z guide on what +EV betting is, how it works, and how you can actually use it to your advantage.
What is +EV Betting? Every time you place a bet, there is an expected win or an expected loss. This is why the house is supposed to “always win”.
For example, for every $100 you bet on a -110 game, the casinos typically expect you to lose $4.55. Also known as a -4.55% expected value, or sometimes called the “hold” when negative. We actually have a free tool that can help you to find this negative expected value or hold percentage if you are curious when looking at casino odds.
Here’s Why:
Let’s say you wagered $100 on at -110 odds. These -110 odds usually mean that the casino thinks you have a 50/50 chance to win.
If you lose, you lose $100. If you win, you get your $100 stake back, plus a profit of $90.91.
Meaning, you get $9.09 less of your money back if you win (You got paid $90.09 instead of $100).
In a perfect world, all games that were 50/50 would have +100 odds. Meaning bet $100 and make $100 profit if you win. But it’s not a perfect world, and the casinos have to take their cut.
If you divide this $9.09 by two (since there are two outcomes, a win or loss), you get $4.55 in what the casino’s call expected loss.
Positive EV betting is when we can instead of making it an “expected loss”, make it an “expected profit”. Luckily for us, there are many ways we can do this.
Why Do +EV Bets Exist? So if the casino takes a cut of every bet, how do bets with an “expected profit” exist?
The +EV or expected profit lies in the implied probability of winning. To make this super easy for you to understand, let’s start with a basic college football example:
Let’s say Alabama is playing against Georgia, and let’s assume these teams are evenly matched. They are both listed at -110. The house will make there cut as always, because they are evenly matched.
Now let’s say that Alabama (College Team) has to play against the Kansas City Chiefs (Pro Team), and the casino listed both teams at -110.
Everyone and their mother would bet on the Chiefs at -110. Sure, the house “has” their edge baked in, because you have to bet $110 to win $100 on either team, but at the end of the day, the Chiefs are a much better team. Meaning the Chiefs are a +EV bet because they should have been a much bigger favorite.
This was a crazy example, but we wanted you to get the concept down. It’s all about the implied chance a team has to win the game, and then the odds they are listed at. The Chiefs probably would have a 99.99% chance to win that game, and the odds in the casino should have reflected that.
In short, +EV bets can be found when a casino’s implied win percentage doesn’t fully match up with what the lines are listed at. A real life example of a +EV bet would be if a team had a 55% implied chance to win a game, and they were listed at -110 odds.
Our odds value calculator can actually tell you the expected value! Start by putting in $100 as the Wager, and then any amounts you like to test.
Now, finding the actual implied win probability is a dense topic for another day, but in short, this can be done by finding something called a no-vig fair odds line from a sharp casino. Sharp casinos can be identified as those with a smaller average market width for those curious.
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How Can I Find and Bet +EV Picks? +EV bets can be found in many different ways. This article was meant to highlight an insane tool that we built for finding +EV picks, called our Positive EV Bot. So let’s jump right into it.
Our +EV bot scans thousands of casino odds, and looks for significant outliers from the market (and from no-vig lines of sharper casinos). This is done by our bot at a speed that is extremely difficult for any human to do.
The downside to the +EV bot is that you typically will be looking at smaller market picks. Meaning alternate spreads, player props, etc. This can lead to limits from casinos quicker at times.
Though, limits sometimes can to be placed for small market bets like props. Big market things, like betting on a team to win are much harder to get limited on. This is because casinos are more confident in big markets.
Luckily for you (again), we have a client favorite service called analyst picks which gives picks for these big markets!
Included in your Elitepickz subscription are 3 amazing tools! You get our analyst picks , arbitrage bot , and of course our +EV bot. We hope to see you in the group soon!
