October 13, 2023
A $1,000 bettor won roughly $87,000 sports betting with our current analysts in 2022.
Yes, you read that right.
So how did we do it? Was it luck?
That's what we are about to dive right into now.
No. Not even a little.
Sports betting can be boiled down to a science, and every outcome has an expected profit or expected loss mathematically.
Long term, over the course of a year, any and all luck tends to be weeded out when betting singles at a high volume.
Our team is able to calculate out our edge over the house, and when consistently playing a profitable edge, it leads to these kinds of results.
The only luck involved in us winning 87 units is that we won 87 instead of say 84.
Our expected profit per pick was roughly 2-3% between our two main analysts.
This is calculated out purely off math, by looking at the value that we are able to bet a team at versus the closing line of the game.
For example, if we bet Team A at -110 a few days before the game, and then by gametime Team A is -140, this is a mathematically profitable bet that we made.
This is because the line moved in our favor, meaning our -110 pick became a much larger betting favorite.
There is a common misconception -- even among pro bettors -- that there is only one way to beat the books.
This is completely false. There are many ways, and our team is living proof of it.
For example, (almost) every form of pro betting involves locating a stale line to some extent.
Meaning that if 10 sportsbooks have a team at -130, and the 11th sportsbook has them at -110, this is a stale line. Meaning it isn't matching up to the correct market value.
There is a whole division behind this side of betting.
A popular way to use math to win is to find what is called a no-vig line with Pinnacle sportsbook, and then to find a market discrepancy by even a couple points (cents).
A no-vig line just means to find the odds if the casino didn't take their cut.
For example, if a game was 50/50 and teams were evenly matched, both sides would be +100. Or bet a dollar to win a dollar.
Instead, the casino needs to take their cut, so they are both listed at -110. Meaning we have to bet more than we win on a 50/50 game.
Team A is -120
Team B is +100
The no-vig line would be about -109 on the favorite, and +109 on the underdog. Meaning that if say FanDuel had Team B at +115 (above the no vig line), then there is a mathematical edge over the house.
The problem with this kind of betting is that it is very easy to get banned/limited quickly, since most of these picks will tend to be on smaller market things (very specific props, alternate lines, etc).
As professional sports bettors, it is extremely important to understand these terms. If you are a client of ours, no need. We do all the work.
Creating a profitable sports betting model is not easy, but it is a very good way to make money betting, and continue hitting your picks on the books.
A betting model is essentially when you are able to make the lines better than the casinos themselves, and then capitalize on say a bad opening line.
For example, DraftKings always tends to be the first major US sportsbook to put out the MLB odds for the following days games. It will depend which country you live in and what books are available to you for opening lines.
Check which sportsbook is advertising betting in your location, and do some research into it (and it's legality in your area of course)!
Between us and our users, we are able to jump on these opening lines every week consistently.
Betting models are our specialty!
Our team does this extremely well, and is a reason why we are able to make so many mathematically profitable bets. It is also much harder to get limited doing this, as you will tend to be betting on larger market things (picking a team, over/under, or larger market props)
Casinos don't limit you as much doing this because they tend to believe that their larger market odds are sharper -- which they are. Meaning your edge over the house will tend to be smaller on average betting on a bigger market.
It's a give and take essentially. These companies are smart, and have just as many tools as we do to create their markets.
There are no rules though, we don't just use models. There are many other types of bets we can mix in, and factors that can go into locating a profitable bet. Each week can vary!
There are many more ways to be able to run up your betting account.
Though some professionals will deny it, being able to look into stats and use your own sports knowledge SOMETIMES can lead to a small edge long term. It is just very unlikely.
One great example is the image attached to this article at the top.
I placed this promotional play bet for the Cowboys or Eagles to win the NFC East at -130, and as of June 20, 2023 it is sitting at -215.
This line moved within about five days up to that -215 mark. Completely based off intuition and some stats of the past.
By next January, that should be a winner.
Trust us though, you are much better off profiting down the math route. It's more predictable long term.
You can sign up below and start using math to profit today!