November 16, 2023
Many people say that the best professional sports bettors -- such as Billy Walters -- have won of 58% of their sports wagers. However the difference between the number of sports bets won in the past and number of chronic loss players in today's betting industry was relatively low at this time. Professional sport bettors rarely sustain long-term winning percentage above 56% and sometimes the lowest win rate of 53 – 54 %.
The break even winning percentage of a profitable sports bettor is typically 52.4%. Meaning that you need a win rate of more than 52.4% of your bets in order to make a profit (assuming -110 odds). There are some exceptions though, that often seem to slip people's attention.
One being that there are professional gamblers whose break even point or win rate may differ. Meaning you can have different win percentages (worse or better) and still win, or lose.
You see, picking winners isn't anything to do with the teams that you bet on. It is everything to do with the odds that you get these teams at.
For example, if two NFL teams are playing against each other next week, the sportsbooks will create a price for us to bet on them. If one team is better than the other, the bookmaker will make them a favorite. The odds may be -200 for the favorite, and +150 for the underdog.
Side note... the public loves wagering on the favorite.
Some professional gamblers tend to bet on games where the odds are a lot higher. Meaning take teams that are -200 on average (bet $200 to win $100). At a -200 average odds, in order to have an advantage over the casinos, you would need your winning percentages to stay above 66.7%.
It also goes the other way! If you bet on the underdogs a lot (say +150 average odds) you would need a win rate of more than 40% of your bets. Sports books are aware of every piece of data we mentioned above.
In a large sample size, these break even win rates are all that matters. The outcome in the short term is almost irrelevant, so long as you are using proper bankroll management.
We cover all of this in more detail with our clients one on one as needed in our betting group on discord as well. You can sign up here and start winning with us today!
Let us correct that. Sports betting win rates above 54% are exceptional.
King Yao is the author of How to Weigh the Chances of Hold ‘em Poker. He used his knowledge to turn gambling into monetary transactions. From 2000 to 2014 he played poker as well as betting on sports. The actor often travels in Las Vegas, particularly at football seasons. As a fellow gambler, he understood these required success rates very well.
Many poker players are able to make a transition into sports betting somewhat seamlessly, as many of them already understand expected value.
In the 2022/23 college football season, our professionals hit just under 55%. The result led to about 3o units of profit. We sent all of these picks to our clients in our discord.
This means that our clients who got the same lines that we did, also profited 30 units. Meaning for a client betting $100 per unit on the games with us, they won roughly $3,000 from college football alone.
At many points in the CFB year, our team had losing stretches. Which can hurt in the moment, especially for newer clients that haven't developed thick skin.
Though, our team continued playing (since we knew we had an edge over the house based off CLV). Which resulted in a gain of 30 units as mentioned, only betting 1 unit per game on average.
Sports betting is all about the long run. Getting your bet in at the correct number, and the collecting your winnings down the road. So long as you have an edge and are placing enough bets, your expected profit will increase. You can calculate your edge by looking at the value that you bet vs the value the line closed at.
There's a common misconception amongst sports bettors that many people are profitable. This is just not true at all, there are barely any real winners long term.
Those who are actually profitable in sports betting don't exactly want to be known. In order for them to continue getting down more bets, they need to stay under the radar. This is because every casino hates winners.
Barstool limits winning bettors to the point where they can only get $5-20 bets in per game. For example, when our team tries to bet $100 on an NBA bet on Barstool, they immediately flag us and make it so that we can't bet more than say $11.
Most people who sell betting advice are often selling it because they on their own are not profitable. Usually, people selling picks are one or two guys that just need to make a quick buck in order to fund their bets.
We hate these kinds of people in the industry with a passion, which is pretty much everyone.
Here at Elitepickz, we do things much differently. Our team of professionals never touch our marketing/social media pages. These professionals are independent, and don't own any part of our company. They simply are just sending a few extra texts in a discord chat every day to our clients.
It is important to know and acknowledge this. When you see someone selling picks, make sure to do your research. Often times it is easy to tell that they aren't a pro, just based off the type of marketing they sell you with. Posting about their luxury lifestyle is usually the first red flag for us.
First off, know that you can't win every day. It's not possible unless you are using bots and betting at extremely high volume.
Instead of shooting for $100 every day of profit, shoot for $36,500 in the year. A year allows you to account for the swings that occur in the industry.
Winning in sports betting is just like anything in life. You have to understand it if you are going to make money from it.
The very first thing to learn as a sports bettor is that parlays are bad for your account in just about every case. For simplicity, we will avoid getting too advanced with this for now. Opt to make a single bet instead. This leads to more profit in the long run, and more predictable win percentages.
As a sharp sports bettor, we only bet where we have an edge. So do not go off the top of your head and assume that you can find success on your own.
Of course, there will be times when you make bets and wish that you bet the other team. You have to mentally accept that making money in the long run comes from following the numbers. The more wagers that you play at the correct values will lead to a bigger profit and better win percentages.
Finding a good value can be hard on your own (this is why we have so many clients).
Don't assume you can use your own knowledge again. The best way to find an advantage is to take a deep dive into advanced stats. For example, in baseball you cannot just be betting the team with a better pitcher.
This is a strategy that many people play and can expect to lose money doing. The sportsbooks know who the better pitcher is. They factor this into the odds that they use! Same goes for NFL with quarterbacks.
Sportsbooks expected profit tends to sit around 4.5%. Meaning for every -110 money bet that you place, you are expected to lose 4.5% of your money. This goes for moneyline, props, point spreads, and any line set at -110 really.
An event like the Superbowl tends to be the best time of year for betting sports as both a fan but also for the casino. Placing more bets usually means that the winning chances for the house tend to go up.
In a big event like this one, the casinos may try to even out the money on each side. So that no matter who wins, they make a profit. This profit is made from their house edge, since they make people bet $110 to win $100, instead of $100 to win $100 on a 50/50 outcome.
We as professionals make our money from finding out where they believe it is a 50/50 outcome, but in fact they have it wrong.
It's like saying a high school football team is playing an NFL team. Who would you place your money bet on?
Of course, we do this on a much smaller scale.
Emotions control how sports bettors think, especially when it comes to placing bets on games using our hard earned money.
We expect to win, but will ultimately lose if we use emotions to make our bets.
Using logic as sports bettors is essential. When we lose money, we cannot go and double down to try and make our money back! Bankroll management is key.
A gambler would make these mistakes. As professionals, we view ourselves as investors. We snipe the best lines, and bet on a game only if we have a quantifiable edge over the house.
The total number of wins and of losses does not matter to us each day. What matters is that we are managing our bankroll correctly, and getting the correct of values.
Wins are irrelevant in the short term for an investor. For a gambler, the short term is all the matters.
If you want to start truly winning, you can signup and use the code "NEW", to become a winning bettor with our team. Hope to see you inside our group soon.