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Understanding Hedge Bet Calculators and Maximizing Your Wins

March 30, 2024

Written by    |
Bill Harrelson

Sports betting, thrilling and potentially lucrative, often scares many away due to fear of loss. Imagine a strategy that can guarantee profit or at least reduce the risk involved. Such a method exists yet remains very underutilized due to a lack of awareness and understanding. Our Hedge Bet Calculator, a simple yet effective risk management tool, allows sports bettors to adjust their stakes on varying outcomes, ensuring profit or reducing loss, regardless of the initial bet's result. This approach helps maintain a healthy bankroll by minimizing potential losses & locking in profits early.

What Is a Hedge Bet Calculator?

A Hedge Bet Calculator is a tool that allows bettors to determine the best amount to bet on a second result in a sporting event or market, with the purpose of securing a profit or reducing losses regardless of the event's conclusion. This approach, known as hedging, is making a fresh bet on the opposite side of your first wager after the odds have moved.

While hedging bets may appear to be a difficult approach to learn, the notion is straightforward. Hedging entails placing a new, second bet on a result different from the one you first wagered on. Depending on the circumstance, this method might result in a profit regardless of the outcome or lessen exposure to your initial wager. In the end, the aim is always to minimize any losses.

When Should You Hedge Your Bets?

  • To lock in a guaranteed profit against an existing parlay or wager.
  • To minimize your losses and limit bankroll exposure after taking a risky wager that you may have regretted.
  • When you make an unintended bet, or circumstances in the game bet on have changed. Such as a star player becoming injured in pre-game warmups. 

Easy-to-Understand Hedging Examples

Let's take a moment to comprehend a hedge. In essence, a hedge is any activity made to lower the likelihood of a negative result in the future.

Car insurance is an excellent example. automobile insurance, which is required in all US states (except New Hampshire), is a hedge that protects automobile owners from the financial constraints of being involved in a car accident.

Here's the thing: Although insurance is expensive, you could drive for the rest of your life without ever requiring it. Would people continue to purchase insurance if the government did not mandate it? Most likely.

The majority of people would prefer to incur the predictable costs of insurance than the enormous financial losses that result from a car accident. In effect, you're making a repeating modest gamble with your insurer, which protects you from the low likelihood (but high cost) occurrence of being in an accident.

So, how does this affect sports betting?

Assume you put a large wager with long odds and subsequently discover you have exposed yourself to an intolerable amount of financial danger, comparable to being in a car accident. To mitigate this risk, put extra bets on opposite outcomes. These opposing bets serve as your insurance policy or hedge.

Of course, the most responsible thing to do would always be to address the core issue, and never gamble more than you can afford to.

In case you require any further assistance regarding hedging don’t hesitate to join ElitePickz’s Discord Channel to get assistance in making mathematical profitable bets. 

What Does Hedging Mean for Sports Betting?

There are several instances in which you might make a profit by using the suitable hedge. We'll walk you through some concrete instances below.

Profiting on Playoff Futures with Hedging

If you are careful with your hedge bets, betting on a playoff series is an easy method for a guaranteed profit. 

Let's say you wager on hockey, and the Pittsburgh Penguins are playing the Columbus Blue Jackets in the NHL playoffs' opening round. You took the Blue Jackets as a massive underdog at +400 because you thought they had a good shot.

Assume the Blue Jackets led 2-0 and were returning home to play games 3 and 4. As a result, Pittsburgh's series odds increased significantly, reaching -100. At this moment, you could put $200 on the Penguins to win the series and be assured a profit regardless of the outcome.

If the Blue Jackets won, you'd collect $400 plus your investment (less the $200 you bet on the Penguins). You'd be assured $200 in profit!

You will receive $200 if the Penguins win (less the $100 wager on the Columbus Blue Jackets). You would still turn a $100 profit!

Of course, you could just lay a $100 bet on the Penguins to protect yourself from future setbacks and to increase your profits should the Columbus Blue Jackets win. In the event that the Jackets win the series, you'll get $400 (less your $100 wager on the Penguins). It wouldn't ensure a benefit, yet it likewise wouldn't fundamentally decrease your odds of success.  

As a bettor, you must select what you are comfortable with in this situation. If you're willing to take a chance and believe the Blue Jackets will win, you might decide against hedging altogether. Hedging is a great alternative if you want to maintain your bankroll and have a more conservative attitude.

Hedging with Championship Futures

Futures wagers are an excellent strategy to hedge and lock in winnings.

Let's look at an NFL future example. The Eagles debuted at +5100 to win it all next year the day after Super Bowl 51 (2016). If you wagered $100 on the Eagles around February 5th, 2016 (either out of pure sports brilliance or team loyalty), you may profit by $5,100 on the eve of Super Bowl 52 a year later.

However, before Super Bowl 52 was played, the Patriots had a money line of - 200. Regardless of the result, if you had wagered $2,000 on the Patriots, you would have won $900 ($1,000 profit minus $100 staked on the Eagles). You would have gotten an ensured $3,100 in the event that the Eagles had won.

Regardless, you'd be ensured a significant benefit. Obviously, the Eagles won Super Bowl 52.

How to Hedge a Parlay Bet

Being nervous about the last game after hitting your first several is one of the most stressful parts of betting parlays. This is the ideal time to hedge your wager and lock in a profit before the final game starts, even though some people prefer to play it all or nothing.

The first technique to hedge a parlay is to wager on the last game after all other teams have won. Using a Hedge Bet Calculator, enter the odds, initial bet, and hedge bet odds. This will provide you with a figure for your hedge bet with the highest assured profit.

The second technique to hedge a parlay is to place a few more parlays using different combinations from your original wager. This is known as a "round robin" and assures that not all legs of your initial wager must win, however the odds will be lower. This technique limits your potential profit, but it provides more protection.

Want to skip the efforts required and bet with professionals? Sign up to Elite Pickz and start a winning streak today. 

How to Hedge a Live Bet

The majority of states allow live betting, which is a great way to hedge. Assume you wager that on Christmas Day, the Packers will defeat the Dolphins. You think the Packers might be outmatched after seeing the first half. To figure out how much to stake, you would use our hedging calculator and the Dolphins' live money line odds.

When putting a live hedge, tracking the live odds is crucial to maximizing your wager. If you wait too long, the chances might not be favorable enough to make a hedge bet. If you place the wager too soon, you may forfeit a larger portion of your profit than necessary. 

If you are considering this strategy, we recommend checking the updated live odds during each break in the game. 

Hedging to Mitigate Your Losses

If you have lost faith in your initial gamble, hedging might help you lower your risk of losing money. Betting on the opposite outcome of your original wager serves as an insurance policy.

Assume you bet $100 earlier this week on the Canucks to cover the -1.5 spread at (-110) and beat the Coyotes. However, by Saturday night, the Canucks had lost three important players to injury, and their starting goaltender was in a bad slump.

These circumstances would understandably make you lose trust in the Canucks' ability to cover the spread. As a result, you're no longer comfortable betting $100 on this event.

You may hedge your bets in two ways. Assume the opposite wager, the Coyotes at +1.5, is priced at (-110). If you stake $100 on the Coyotes to cover the spread, you are assured to earn $90. You would only lose $10 on the juice.

Additionally, you can place a partial hedge bet. This allows you to minimize the overall size of your wager on the Canucks. By betting $77 on the Coyotes (while your first $100 bet on the Canucks remains available).

If the Canucks covered in this scenario, you'd still make a $13 profit since you'd net $90 after subtracting the $77 you bet on the Coyotes. If the Coyotes cover, you will lose $30. You'd earn $70 but lose the $100 you bet on the Canucks.

There are other hedge combination options available, depending on the level of risk you choose.

Taking Back an Accidental Bet

While it is uncommon, we have heard several anecdotes about people accidentally placing bets. Once placed, a wager cannot be canceled.

So, if you accidentally make a bet and don't think it'll pay off, hedging lets you immediately lower your risk. Simply wager on the opposite outcome; all you lose is the sportsbook's profit.

Assume you wrongly bet on the total of a Knicks vs. Nets game to be more than 201 (-110). Simply wager the same amount on the under, and you'll lose very little.

To get a clear vision of what your chances of winning in an online game are, check out our “Winning Percentage of Professional Sports Bettors" blog. 

Hedging Formulas

Deciding when to hedge is an inherently uncertain area. However, these two calculations might assist you in calculating how to avoid a loss while maximizing profit by hedging.

Formula for Preventing a Loss by Hedging

The formula for hedging against loss is straightforward. We know how much we want to make, so we only need to manipulate the formula for computing profit from decimal odds. To sum up, simply divide your initial wager by the decimal odds of hedging, less one.

Hedge Stake = Original Stake / (Hedge Decimal Odds – 1)

Suppose, for example, that you bet $100 right off the bat in the season on the Falcons to win the Super Bowl at +1000. However, in the Super Bowl, they play the Patriots. The Patriots have a -200 price tag. You've made the decision to ensure that you receive your money back.

The technique.  for hedging to avoid loss is straightforward... Simply divide your original stake by the hedging decimal odds, minus one.

To accomplish the conversion, you must first convert American odds to decimal odds.

The initial stake equals $100.

Patriots Odds to Beat the Falcons = 1.50.

100/1.50 = $200

If you wager $200 on the Patriots, you will get your cash back, no matter what is the result. A Patriots victory procures you $100, which covers your underlying investment in the Falcons.

Furthermore, you still stand to benefit handsomely if the Falcons win.

Formula to Maximize Winnings with Hedging

This method is significantly more involved than the previous one, but it will eventually save you time if you ever find yourself in a favorable hedging scenario.

The formula is as follows:

X = (P + W1) / O

P = Profit you stand to get from your first wager

W1 = The amount of your first wager in $ 

O = Decimal odds of the wager you use as a hedge.

To determine how much you'll gain, deduct x (the amount you hedged) from P.

P – X = Your Guaranteed Payout

Say you invest $100 on a tennis futures bet with +800 odds. On the eve of the tournament's last game, the other player is available with odds of -133 (1.75).

The formula would apply as follows:

P = 800

W1 = 100

O = 1.75

X = (800+100) / (1.75)

X = 514.28

800-514.28 = 285.72

If you stake $514.28 on the opposition player, you'll earn $285.72 regardless. That is the beauty of hedging!

Hedging Strategy

While selecting your hedging strategy, it is crucial to specify your goal precisely. To maximize your potential return, are you willing to take a chance, or are you more concerned with avoiding losses?

Here are three main methods of hedging:

HIGH-RISK/HIGH-REWARD - Using this method, you can increase the possible profit on your initial bet by making a smaller bet or perhaps not making any at all. Although it carries more risk, the rewards could be substantially greater.

GUARANTEE PROFIT - Most people who use arbitrage betting have this as their ultimate goal. This method frequently requires a larger hedge bet total, but it ensures a healthy profit no matter how the game turns out. Although the assurance of a profit is good, this tactic reduces your prospective reward in the event that your initial wager is successful.

COVERING YOUR LOSSES - This entails hedging the original wager amount with a wager. Even though the hedge bet doesn't have much potential for profit, it helps offset any possible loss from the original wager. This is more typical in high-stakes parlays or live betting because it provides some safety and increases the reward on your initial wager.

Wrapping it Up!

A comprehensive sports betting strategy consists of many components, one of which is risk management. One of the most significant tools that can help you manage the risk efficiently is a Hedge Bet Calculator.  By incorporating this tool, bettors can strategically mitigate potential losses and optimize their overall betting approach for long-term success.

The entire blog section on our website is a great place to start if you want to be more methodical about your sports betting.

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