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The Ultimate Guide to the Best Betting Strategy for Football

February 27, 2024

Written by    |
Bill Harrelson

You love watching football, and you’ve always thought you had a knack for predicting the winners.

So, why not make a few bucks while enjoying the game?

Sports betting has exploded in popularity, and placing a wager on your favorite team is easier than ever. However, before you deposit your life savings into your new online sportsbook account, you need to identify the best betting strategy for football that works for you.

best betting strategy for football

Betting on football isn’t as simple as picking the team with the fanciest uniforms or sticking to your lifelong loyalty to the local underdogs. If you want to make money from betting, you must approach it like a pro.

This guide outlines the best betting strategies we use at Elite Pickz to beat the odds and fatten our clients’ wallets. At the end of this read, you’ll be armed with everything you need to know about football betting strategies — from money management techniques to the intricacies of point spreads. The season is here, so prepare to cash in on all the action.

The 8 Best Football Betting Strategies to Help You Win

In a nutshell, here are eight solid betting strategies for football that can help you beat the odds:

  1. Know your teams.
  2. Analyze matchups and stats to gain an edge
  3. Focus on value bets, not just favorites.
  4. Consider teasers and parlays for bigger payouts.
  5. Do your research on injuries and roster changes.
  6. Look for trends in the NFL betting lines.
  7. Consider home underdogs and divisional dogs.
  8. Manage your money and set a budget.

1. The best betting strategy for football: Know your teams.

You must know the teams inside and out to bet on football successfully. At Elite Pickz we do the research and understand how teams match up against each other, how they perform against the spread and totals, recent trends, coaching styles, key players, and more. The more you know, the better your chances of spotting value bets and making more intelligent wagers.

Here are six key things to consider for each team:

  • Head Coach And Coaching Staff: Some coaches are aggressive risk-takers, while others are more conservative. Know the coaching philosophy and how it impacts team performance and outcomes.
  • Team Schedules: Look at the teams’ schedules to spot potential fatigue or rest advantages. Teams on short rest or at the end of a long road trip may underperform. Also note divisional matchups, as these can be unpredictable.
  • Key Players: Follow the top players and understand how they impact their team’s success. If a star quarterback (QB) or rusher is out due to injury, it impacts the whole team. Note how teams perform when key players are sidelined.
  • Home vs. Away: Some teams consistently perform better at home or on the road. Look for teams with a significant home-field advantage or those that struggle away from home.
  • Trends Against the Spread: Note any trends of teams consistently overperforming or underperforming against the spread. Some teams may struggle as big favorites or underdogs. Look for patterns you can leverage.
  • Defensive Matchups: Compare how teams’ offensive strengths match up against their opponent’s defensive weaknesses to spot potential mismatches. Some teams struggle against the run or pass, which you can exploit.

The more factors you can analyze for each team, the better you can develop the best betting system for football and your chances of making winning bets. Do your homework and get to know the teams inside out — your bank account will thank you for it!

2. Analyze matchups and stats to gain an edge.

You need to dive into the details to gain an edge in betting on football. Analyze matchups, stats, and trends to uncover opportunities the oddsmakers may have missed.

Dig into team and player stats. Yards per game, points allowed, sacks, interceptions, completion percentage, and yards per carry provide insight into strengths and weaknesses. Look for teams that excel in key areas like third-down conversions, red zone scoring, or time of possession.

professional sports bettors

Players to watch include quarterbacks, running backs, and top receivers — see who’s hot and who’s not. A quarterback with a completion percentage over 65% and more touchdowns than interceptions is probably a good bet. Similarly, a running back averaging over 4 yards per carry could have a big day.

Also, check trends like how teams perform against the spread after a win or loss. Some teams struggle the week after a big victory; others bounce back strong following a defeat. Look at divisional matchups where one team has dominated. Fading the public perception can also help join the list of professional sports bettors.

The oddsmakers don’t have time to analyze every detail of every game; do your homework, and you’ll uncover the best betting systems for football in these loopholes. You’ll gain an advantage with the correct stats and matchups and beat the odds of betting on football. However, if you need help picking the correct odds, our team of professional cappers can provide you with profitable sports betting takes when you join our Discord channel.

3. Focus on value bets, not just favorites.

Don’t just put your money on the favorites when betting on football. Some of the best value bets come from underdogs that have a solid chance of pulling off an upset. Focusing on value means looking for bets where the odds don’t correctly reflect a team’s chances of winning.

Here are four tips to help you locate value bets in football:

  • Find undervalued underdogs: Scan the weekly matchups and look for underdogs with a good shot at winning outright or covering the spread. Maybe a team has a new star player or matches up well against their opponent. Or perhaps they’re underrated coming off a bye week. When you find a promising underdog, compare their odds to their chances of winning. If there’s a big enough gap, that’s a value bet.
  • Consider home underdogs: Home underdogs often present good value since the home-field advantage is usually worth about three points. If a home team is an underdog by less than a field goal, they have a solid shot at winning outright. Double-check how the teams match up, but home underdogs are always worth a closer look.
  • Look at trends: Some underdogs are undervalued because people haven’t caught up with their recent improvements. Look for teams on winning streaks or with a new coach or critical player. Hot teams at the end of the regular season are also dangerous in the playoffs. The oddsmakers may not boost them enough, so you’ll find value in betting on these under-the-radar teams.
  • Compare odds between books: Don’t just take the odds at face value; compare different sportsbooks to find the best deal. Even slight differences in odds can add up to big money over time. An extra half or full point on the spread can determine whether a bet wins or loses. Shop multiple books to find the most favorable odds on your value plays.

With some research, you can sniff out undervalued underdogs each week and develop the best football system for betting. When you find a promising team at good odds, pounce on that value bet. Throughout a season, focusing on value will put the odds in your favor.

4. Consider teasers and parlays for bigger payouts.

Everyone loves a good underdog story, and with parlays and teasers, you can develop the best football betting strategies. These types of bets allow you to manipulate the point spread in your favor to increase the payout. The trade-off is that all legs of the parlay or teaser have to win for you to get paid. But when they do hit, the rewards can be huge.

A parlay involves betting on two or more wagers, called “legs,” and linking them together. All legs must win for the parlay to be a winner.

Parlays allow you to bet a little to win a lot. Even betting small amounts, a successful 3- or 4-team parlay payout can turn $20 into $100 or more. The more teams you add, the higher the payout.

teasers and parlays

A teaser is similar to a parlay but gives you an advantage by allowing you to adjust the point spread in your favor. For example, if there are two favorites you want to bet on but you think the spreads are too high, you can use a 6-point teaser to reduce each spread by 6 points. Now those favorites become even bigger favorites, increasing your chance of winning. Like parlays, all legs of a teaser must win for you to get paid.

When constructing a parlay or teaser, consider these five tips:

  • Focus on underdogs or small favorites: Parlays and teasers work best when you pick underdogs or small favorites (less than 7 points). The payout will be much higher than if you pick weighty favorites.
  • Do your research: Make sure you have valid reasons for choosing each team before linking them together in a parlay or teaser. Don’t just pick favorites — look for mismatches, trends, and edges.
  • Consider correlation: Pick teams whose outcomes aren’t highly correlated. For example, don’t pick three teams from the same division where they play each other during the season. If one team loses, the other is more likely also to lose.
  • Start small: Don’t play a massive amount on your first parlay or teaser. Start small to get a feel for it. As you get more experience, you can increase your bets.
  • Hedging is OK: If a few legs of your parlay or teaser have already won, consider hedging the remaining games to guarantee a profit. You can bet on the other teams, so you win either way.

Parlays and teasers add excitement to NFL betting and an opportunity for huge payouts. With some intelligent strategizing, these bets can lead to big rewards for your bankroll. Ultimately, we would recommend singles. Parlays are much more for entertainment. Still, only bet what you can afford to lose, as the odds will always be against you. At ElitePickz, we’re dedicated to providing you with the most profitable takes on parlays and teasers, and our customer reviews testify to our long history of winning.

5. Do your research on injuries and roster changes.

You must know the teams inside and out to build the best football betting strategy. Do your homework on research injuries, roster changes, and other factors influencing a team’s performance.

Here are four tips to aid your research:

  • Stay on top of injury reports and know who’s in and out: If a star quarterback or running back is injured, it can completely change a team’s offensive dynamic. See if the backup has much experience and how that might impact the team’s strategy. Also, check if any vital defensive players will be sidelined, which could weaken their ability to stop the other team.
  • Look for significant roster changes from trades, free agency signings, or the draft: It can take time for new players to adjust to their team’s system and style of play. See if the new additions fill any glaring needs or weaknesses from the previous season. New coaches or coordinators can also mean implementing different offensive and defensive schemes, so check if the personnel seems suited to run them effectively.
best football betting strategy
  • Follow each team’s statistics and trends: See if they have a strong passing or running game, a solid run defense or secondary, a home vs. away record, performance against the spread, etc. Compare stats to their opponents’ to determine any advantages. Recent team performance and momentum can also be a predictor of future outcomes.
  • Review expert opinions and predictions but trust your judgment: The oddsmakers don’t always get it right. Consider the matchup; which team has more talent and ways to exploit their opponent’s weaknesses? Look for emotional or motivational factors like key rivalries that could drive a team to overperform.

The more you know about the teams, players, stats, and trends, the more informed your bets will be. While there’s always an element of luck, thorough research and analysis will increase your odds of betting success over the long run. Stay on top of all the details each week, and you’ll gain an edge that most casual bettors lack.

6. Look for trends in the NFL betting lines.

When betting on NFL games, look for trends that can give you an edge and help you profit from sports betting. The line makers set the odds to get equal betting on both sides, so spotting trends can reveal value bets and help develop the best football betting systems.

Here are five key trends to watch:

  • Recent performance
  • Home/away and divisional records
  • Matchups
  • Injuries/personnel changes
  • Primetime/playoff implications

a. Recent Performance

Teams on winning or losing streaks often continue their momentum. Consider the team’s performance over their last 3–4 games.

Are they covering the spread?

Are they winning convincingly or barely getting by?

Are they riding high or struggling?

Past performance can point to future results.

b. Home/Away and Divisional Records

Some teams dominate at home but struggle on the road; others have a strong record within their division. Check each team’s home vs. away and divisional win/loss records over the past few seasons to see if there are meaningful differences you can exploit. Home underdogs, for example, often have value, and betting on them can be one of the best betting strategies for sports.

c. Matchups

Sometimes, bookmakers tend to mismatch points for some teams. Maybe the team’s offense perfectly counters the opponent’s defense or their coaching staff knows how to neutralize the opponent. Look for lopsided results in the teams’ recent matchups and consider betting on the trend. Mismatch-ups often continue from season to season until there are significant changes.

d. Injuries/Personnel Changes

Late-week injuries to star players or impactful personnel changes can sometimes swing the lines and odds in your favor. For example, if a team’s top wide receiver or running back is out, the opposing defense can focus elsewhere. Monitor injury reports and transactions until kickoff to spot these potential advantages. The line makers can’t always fully account for last-minute changes.

e. Primetime/Playoff Implications

Teams fighting for a playoff spot or playing in a primetime game often rise to the occasion. They have extra motivation to put on a show for a national audience or keep their postseason hopes alive — consider betting on the team with the most at stake. Playoff implications late in the season can create extra value.


Looking at trends like these can uncover the best NFL betting strategy with a higher chance of success. While upsets always happen, playing the percentages by spotting advantageous trends will often win. With research and keen observation, you’ll be well on your way to betting like a pro.

Sign up with Elite Pickz today to start receiving tips from our team of profitable sports bettors. We have a record of providing calculated betting takes that can help flip the odds in your favor. In this article, we analyzed how our team won $87,000 from sports betting last year.

7. Consider home underdogs and divisional dogs.

When betting on football, don’t forget about the underdogs, especially home underdogs and divisional underdogs. These types of bets can offer a lot of value if you do your research.

Home underdogs often get overlooked by casual bettors and the public in general. The home team is expected to have the crowd behind them, familiar surroundings, and travel advantages over their opponent.

While the favorites should win more often, home underdogs frequently cover the spread and even win outright. Pay attention to teams with a motivated fan base that will show up and be loud.

Divisional underdogs are also worth considering — teams in the same division often play and are very familiar with one another. Even if there’s a talent gap, the underdog has a good chance of keeping the game close or pulling off an upset because they match up well against their opponent. Rivalry games, in particular, tend to be hard-fought so that the underdog could be extra motivated.

When evaluating home underdogs or divisional underdogs, look for specific situations that may give them an edge, including the following:

  • Critical injuries for the favored team, especially at QB or on the offensive line.
  • The underdog coming off a bye week while the favorite had a short week.
  • Poor weather conditions may neutralize the favorite’s offensive advantages.
  • Late-season situations where the favorite has already clinched a playoff spot and may rest starters.

You never know when David will slay Goliath, so don’t just bet favorites every week in the NFL. You can gain an advantage over the public by identifying choice spots to back motivated home underdogs and divisional dogs and beat the oddsmakers. With research and keen insight, these types of bets can help you become profitable over the long run.

8. Manage your money and set a budget.

To be a successful football bettor, you need to go in with a strategy and stick to it. One of the most essential betting strategies for football is managing your money and setting a budget.

Here are four tips to help you manage your finances when betting on football:

  • Set a bankroll and stick to it: Decide how much money you can afford to bet for the whole season. Maybe it’s $500; maybe it’s $5,000. Whatever it is, that’s your bankroll — don’t deposit any more money after that initial amount.
  • Bet a consistent percentage: A good rule of thumb is to bet around 1–5% of your bankroll on each wager. Ideally 1-2%. So, if your bankroll is $1,000, you might bet $10–$50 per game. This ensures you’re not betting too little to win but not so much that a few losses wipe you out. Adjust your bet size accordingly as your bankroll grows or shrinks over the season.
  • Avoid the temptation to chase losses: One of the biggest mistakes new bettors make is betting more after losses to try and win it back quickly. This is known as “chasing your losses,” it’s a surefire way to go broke fast. Stick to your strategy of betting a fixed percentage of your bankroll on each game, win or loss. Over time, your wins and losses will balance, but you must avoid reckless betting.
  • Take regular breaks: It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of the football season and betting on games each week. However, taking breaks when needed is essential to avoid fatigue and help you recharge. Maybe skip betting for a week or bet lighter — use the time to analyze stats, matchups and refine your strategy. You’ll come back refreshed and ready to make smarter bets.

Following these tips for managing your money and budgeting properly can be the difference between a profitable season of betting on football and going broke within a few weeks. Bet responsibly by setting a bankroll, sticking to a fixed betting amount, avoiding reckless losses, and taking breaks when needed. And if you would instead follow the leads of an experienced team with a profitable betting history, join our discord channel; your bank account will thank you for it!

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the most successful betting strategy?

There isn’t a single most successful betting strategy that guarantees consistent wins. The effectiveness of a betting strategy depends on various factors, including the type of game or sport you’re betting on, your risk tolerance, and the odds involved. It’s essential to carefully research, analyze, and tailor your strategy based on these factors to improve your chances of success.

What is the 1.50 odds strategy?

The term “1.50 odds strategy” or “-200 odds Strategy” refers to a betting strategy where a bettor focuses on selecting bets with odds of 1.50 (-200) or higher. This strategy seeks out bets with a higher likelihood of winning, as odds of 1.50 (-200) imply a higher probability of success. However, it’s important to note that betting strategies shouldn’t be solely based on odds alone; factors such as research, analysis, and understanding of the sport or game being bet on should also be considered for a well-rounded approach to betting.


This guide has armed you with all you need to develop the best betting strategy for football that works for you. The key is finding value, managing money, and researching. Don’t just blindly pick favorites or go with your gut; look for underdogs that have a shot to win and get a feel for how teams match up against each other. Also, keep track of your wins and losses to understand what’s working and adjust as needed.

If you take the time to understand football and how to read the odds, you’ll be well on your way to building a winning strategy and fattening your wallet. You might make just enough to buy a round at your favorite sports bar. However, we understand getting started can be challenging, so we suggest you join our Discord channel to bet on winning games from professional cappers. We promise to give you an extra month for free if you don’t recover your initial investment in the first month — sign up with us now!

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